A new independent survey conducted by an Independent Media Coalition has sent ripples through Ghana’s political landscape, revealing a dramatic shift in the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) flagbearer contest.

With just 4 months to go before the primary, the data suggests that Dr. Bryan Acheampong is rapidly gaining ground, positioning himself as a serious challenger to Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and Mr Kennedy Agyapong.

The survey, which sampled over 34,000 delegates across all 16 regions, shows Dr. Bawumia leading with 31.4% of the vote (10,901 delegates), followed by Dr. Acheampong with 23.3% (8,091 delegates).

Mr. Kennedy Agyapong trails with 16% (5,569 delegates), while a significant 27.8% (9,657 delegates) remain undecided — a figure large enough to swing the outcome and potentially force a run-off.

Dr. Acheampong’s strongest showing comes from the Eastern Region, where he secured 2,001 votes, outpacing both Bawumia and Agyapong.

He also posted competitive numbers in Ashanti, Greater Accra, and Central, signalling a broadening appeal beyond his home base.

Bawumia maintains dominance in the North East, Volta, and Upper West regions, while Agyapong’s support appears concentrated in Volta and Central.

The implications of these figures are profound.

With no candidate crossing the 50% threshold, the likelihood of a run-off is high.

Acheampong’s momentum, particularly in strategic regions, suggests he could overtake Agyapong for second place, setting the stage for a head-to-head showdown with Bawumia.

Meanwhile, the undecided bloc, nearly 28% of delegates, has become the kingmaker, holding the power to tip the balance in favour of either frontrunner.

Political analysts note that Acheampong’s rise may be attributed to his brand clarity,  disciplined ground operations, regional loyalty, and a message that resonates with grassroots delegates.

His campaign has reportedly focused on operational clarity, building s strong brand, economic pragmatism, and party unity,themes that appear to be gaining traction.

As the NPP gears up for its decisive vote, candidates are expected to intensify their outreach, forge strategic alliances, and tailor their messaging to regional sentiments. The race is no longer a two-man contest; it is a dynamic, multi-polar battle where every vote counts and every region matters.

With the primaries looming, the party faces a critical juncture. Will Bawumia consolidate his lead, or will Acheampong’s surge reshape the narrative? Will Kennedy Agyapong recalibrate to reclaim momentum? And how will the undecided delegates respond to the final campaign push?

One thing is clear: the NPP flagbearer race has entered a new phase — unpredictable, competitive, and wide open.