In the lead-up to the New Patriotic Party's (NPP) presidential primaries on Saturday, November 4, a poll conducted by the Institute of Research Innovation & Development at Kumasi Technical University suggests that Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia is poised for a significant lead in the race.

The poll indicates that Dr. Bawumia is likely to secure overwhelming support in eight regions.

Engaging 15,595 NPP delegates, the poll considered key factors such as unifying qualities, visible leadership, and the ability to break the "8," along with non-policy factors like religion and ethnicity. 

The findings reveal that 71.1% of respondents believe Dr. Bawumia is more likely to break the "8," while 26.8% favor Kennedy Agyapong.

In terms of unifying qualities, 69.9% described Dr. Bawumia as the most unifying, while 19.4% attributed this quality to Kennedy Agyapong. Regarding visible leadership qualities, 70.5% of delegates chose Dr. Bawumia, with 19.4% favoring Kennedy Agyapong.

The research also explored the influence of religion and ethnicity on voting choices.

While 13.4% considered religion, 86.4% did not. Similarly, 13.8% would strongly consider ethnicity, while 86.2% would not factor it into their decision. 

The past record was a significant consideration for 97.1% of respondents.

Prof. Smart Sarpong, the lead researcher, revealed that Dr. Bawumia holds a commanding lead in eight regions, including North East, Northern, Upper East, Upper West, Ashanti, Bono, Eastern, and Volta. However, the poll suggests that the race could be open in five regions: Western, Savannah, Bono East, the party headquarters, and Western North.

Mr Kennedy Agyapong, Dr. Bawumia's closest contender, has the potential for a clear lead in Oti, Greater Accra, Central, and Ahafo regions, according to the research.