A leading African security expert has warned that the political unrest unfolding in Togo poses a grave threat not only to the country’s internal stability but also to the broader security and humanitarian fabric of West Africa.

In a strongly worded statement, Francis Ahovi, Executive Secretary of the Global Security for Africa Research and Good Governance (GLOSARGG), described the recent mass protests in Togo as a dangerous flashpoint.

The unrest follows the passage of a controversial constitutional reform that transitions the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system—a move many critics say is designed to entrench President Faure Gnassingbé’s grip on power.

While the government insists the reform is a step toward democratic maturity, it has triggered widespread opposition and street demonstrations.

Security forces have responded with force, leading to arrests, injuries, media blackouts, and what Ahovi describes as “a shrinking democratic space.”

“This situation threatens to evolve into a full-scale internal conflict,” Ahovi warned.

“Militarised repression, particularly against peaceful demonstrators, creates fertile ground for radicalisation and erodes trust in state institutions, especially among the youth.”

Ahovi further cautioned that the unrest could have dire consequences beyond Togo’s borders.

He identified the risk of the crisis spilling over into Ghana, Benin, and Burkina Faso, with implications such as arms trafficking, displacement of populations, and potential exploitation by insurgent groups.

In addition to the security risks, Ahovi drew attention to the worsening humanitarian situation.

He said disruptions to healthcare, food access, and education have already been recorded, alongside increasing attacks on civil liberties like freedom of expression and association.

To prevent further deterioration, Ahovi proposed a multi-faceted response framework:

Inclusive National Dialogue: A transitional dialogue involving political actors, civil society, youth groups, and religious leaders, with ECOWAS and the African Union acting as neutral mediators.

Regional Security Monitoring: Deployment of an ECOWAS peace and governance mission to monitor the situation and mediate tensions.

Constitutional Review: Suspension of the current reforms for an independent review that includes nationwide consultation and potentially a referendum.

Media and Humanitarian Access: Restoration of media freedom and guaranteed access for humanitarian organisations.

Early Elections: In the absence of political consensus, early parliamentary elections should be held under international supervision to restore democratic legitimacy.

'Togo’s crisis is more than a national issue; it is a litmus test for the region’s commitment to democracy and peace,” Ahovi said. “Any delay or indifference could escalate the crisis and fuel long-term insecurity.”

The call from GLOSARGG adds to growing international concern over political developments in Togo, where tensions continue to rise as opposition groups rally against what they describe as an attempted “power grab” under the guise of constitutional reform.