Suffice to say that the Electoral Commission has set a date for the declared vacant parliamentary seat in Assin North to be filled and has open nomination for potential would-be members of Parliament to engage in rigorous partisan campaign in the Assin North Constituency, I am of the opinion that if care is not taken and stringent measures not enforced, we are likely to witness violent characterised by-election as has always been the case. 

Chereponi, Atiwa, Talensi, and very recently the Ayawaso West Wuogon by-elections have left a lot of indelible secure on the minds of many Ghanaians especially the negatively affected residents of those Constituencies. 

The voting history of Assin North indicates that the two leading political parties in Ghana, The New Patriotic Party, (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) have won the parliamentary seat with the incumbent restricted member of Parliament being on the ticket of the NDC who won the seat with a little over 2000 votes. 

From 2012, the Assin North Constituency has been a swing Constituency and can tilt to either NPP or NDC depending on what goes into the campaign before the day of elections. 

The recent event that has led to the seat being declared vacant by the High Court in Cape Coast, is vociferously challenged by the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) whose member of Parliament has been restricted by the court. 

The indicators are so glaring that, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) is poised to wrestle the seat from the NDC since they (NPP) need a simple majority in Parliament. 

Currently, with only one independent member of Parliament on the side of the ruling New Patriotic Party in Parliament, it would be a sigh of relief if NPP is able to recapture the seat of Assin North Constituency, that would mean that the NPP now have a simple majority of 138 members of Parliament as against 136 of the opposition NDC. 

Tension has started building up, however, the Electoral Commissioner is yet to fix a date for the by-election as ordered by the High Court.

All indicators show that both NPP and NDC are ready and prepared to the bone to ensure victory.

Both parties have begun underground work to fill in the right candidate who can win the seat. The opposition NDC is seen to still showcasing the embattled MP who has been restricted by the court. There is the likelihood of him being re-presented to the people of Assin North on the ticket of NDC. 

From all indicators,  the election in Assin North Constituency is going to be fearlessly contested by the two leading political parties i.e NPP and the NDC. 

This is likely to pose a serious security challenge which may be difficult for the state security agencies especially the police whose duty it is to Superintend on all internal elections and related issues. 

The police must be seen to be firm and in control of all processes before, during, and after the elections. The police must be seen to have fully taken the center stage of all the security management and control of the elections and only allow the military to serve as a backup.

To avoid the replication of, Atiwa, Chereponi, Talensi, and Ayawaso West Wuogon by-elections, there is an urgent need for the National Commission for Civic- Education (NCCE) to move to Assin North and begin a rigorous civil electoral education and also engage the traditional authorities together with other like-minded civil society organisations to ensure that the residents of Assin North Constituency,  are thoroughly oriented and educated about the need to guard jealously the peace they are enjoying in the Constituency. 

The traditional authorities must be seen as not willing and ready to compromise the peace and safety of the people, therefore a strong signal should be sent to all the political parties, indicating their unpreparedness to tolerate any form of political violence. 

The National Security, the National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) the Military, as well as other state security institutions must work in collaboration with the police to ensure well-coordinated and peaceful by-election in the Assin North Constituency. 

The National Intelligence Bureau must be seen to be in control of all information and intelligence correspondence timely to avoid any form of security breaches. 

The Regional Security Council must allow the professional security officers to make effective and professional decisions in their standard operational procedures, which would in the end ensure police accountability. 

This being his first-ever litmus test,  the acting Inspector-General of Police,  Dr. George Akuffo Dampare must prove himself fit for the position by ensuring that this by-election is conducted smoothly devoid of political decisions, instead he must distinguish himself professionally meticulous and win the trust of the general public as well as the appointing authority. 

All said and done,  I am hopeful that we can avoid the replication of Atiwa, Talensi, Chereponi, and Ayawaso West Wuogon by-elections in Assin North Constituency, if we allow the state security agencies to manage and coordinate all security related issues before, during, and after the elections. 

Signed 

Samuel Nana Appiah Owusu, 

Executive Director, 

Global Intelligence and Security Analysis Centre (GISAC).

Security Research and Intelligence Analyst.