When Ghana entered 2025, the national conversation was about how this government was going to keep us afloat. The focus was on stabilising the cedi, moving out of a hyperinflationary economy, negotiating debt and restoring investor confidence post an unpleasant debt restructuring experience.

Throughout the year, there’s been a meaningful turnaround as the government continues to navigate the tides with a glimpse of stability beginning to return.

In a previous article, “From Recovery to Reset”, I outlined five non-negotiables the Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, was to address to make a shift. After listening to the budget presentation, the question is: Did the Government deliver on addressing key concerns, and can it be executed?

Reviewing the budget in detail, the answer is a measured one: I believe the right intentions exist, much of what was expected was met, but the real test remains the execution discipline.

Let’s critically look at each of those five expectations and compare them with what was delivered in the budget.

 

A Disciplined approach to spending- Partially Met

The budget positions the promise of a 1.5% primary surplus and a 2.2% overall deficit as the anchor for macroeconomic stability.

This aligns with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Programme as expected.

Expenditure rationalisation measures such as restrictions on foreign travel, workshops, procurement and a freeze on new contracts without funding, and better appropriation of funds are necessary and what Ghana needs.

A surplus reduces borrowing, underpins the cedi, and allows interest rates to rebalance, inducing economic growth.

On the other hand, businesses could benefit from reduced borrowing in the government, as funding from banks will be potentially skewed towards private sector development as interest rates continue to decline.

For individuals, the improved economic conditions (primary surplus and lower deficit) could increase purchasing power and improve affordability and expand access to credit.

First National Bank’s robust credit framework is well-positioned to support both segments with appropriately priced credit as conditions ease.

The budget, however, remains heavily pressured from capital-intensive new flagship programmes such as infrastructure “Big Push,” increased agriculture interventions, education and the 24-hour economy, all of which can bloat the expenditure book. The credibility of these targets will be heavily reliant on actual revenue mobilisation and strict adherence to the above controls. Ghana has a track record of “muted actual delivery”, meaning that achieving a primary surplus will require an unprecedented degree of discipline.

 

Avoiding Expensive Borrowing - Met

The Minister of Finance made it clear that Ghana will not immediately head back to Eurobond markets.

The country, instead, will prioritise concessional and relatively cheaper financing from the World Bank, Africa Development Bank, Afreximbank, the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA), and various bilateral partners.

The government will also facilitate the use of project financing, Public Private Partnerships (PPPs), export credit facilities, and other innovative financial structures.

This is a prudent policy stance based on the investor community's outlook and post debt restructuring impact.

The key hurdle will be how the government will ensure a pipeline of bankable projects to attract the right investors to lock in patient capital with an appreciation of the concessional financing, in practice, have long disbursement timelines.

Some financial institutions, including First National Bank, are strongly aligned with this and are already working closely with several multilaterals and the government to channel credit into the private sector and some key flagship programmes.

The industry’s in-depth expertise in structuring credit and other customer-centric financial solutions positions the sector to compliment government’s strategy and support viable public and private-sector projects as opportunities surface.

The Government will also need to ensure procurement discipline, rigorous contractor selection, and not use party cards as the silent criteria but award to those who can deliver.

Sticking to predictable payment cycles is necessary as delayed disbursements and weak contractor vetting have historically derailed projected timelines and increased fiscal risks.

 Domestic Bond Issuance- Partially Met

The budget strengthens its Medium-Term Debt Strategy, pledging predictable, market-aligned domestic borrowing and longer-dated bonds. But it fails to provide a detailed quarterly issuance calendar on bonds, which is a key tool investors expect to see upfront.

This is very important because it gives banks, pension funds and the investor community visibility on government borrowing to help with planning, risk management, and reduce volatility in the market. For a country picking itself up from the aftermath of the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), showing consistency does not become a technical detail but a market confidence signal thus the need for it to be addressed explicitly.  

Businesses like the government can also explore the domestic bond market as a cheaper source of long-term credit through issuance of commercial papers and structured notes, with the banking industry and other investment firms well-positioned to offer advisory and issuance services.

This presents individuals with the opportunity for individuals to consider alternative investment channels beyond T-bills and Savings, as more equities will be listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange.

 

Tax reforms- Fully Met

This, I believe, was the most substantive part of the budget. The Government has initiated a comprehensive restructuring of the tax system, which includes:

a)    Removal of the COVID-19 levy.

b)    Reduction of the effective VAT rate from 21.9% to 20%.

c)    Raising the VAT registration threshold from GH¢200,000 to GH¢750,000.

d)    Clean-up of GET Fund and NHIL distortions.

e)    Stronger digital compliance, e-commerce taxation and AI-enabled customs systems.

f)     Tightened exemptions and stronger enforcement of arrears.

These reforms are feasible and present a more predictable tax environment for businesses, as they rely more on administrative will than fresh taxes and well as not impose more burden on compliant taxpayers.

Reduced VAT and cleaner tax administration will ease pressures for households and help them save and invest more as they benefit from a more transparent system.

The challenge is still Ghana’s historical problem of breaking down compliance with regulations and enforcing the informal sector.

 REVIVE the Sinking Fund- Not Met

The budget did not sufficiently cover the revival of the Sinking Fund, despite the significant debt maturities (c.GHS 50bn in 2027 to 2028) that Ghana must cover.

The budget does reinforce the management of petroleum revenue and outlines a medium-term debt strategy, but does not explicitly reconstitute the Sinking Fund with ring-fenced inflows and strict usage rules.

This undermines the rhetoric around sustainable long-term debt.

 

Revenue Measures – Strong but Ambitious

The measures outlined in the budget are a long list of tough goals but not impossible.

Government expects revenue to reach GH¢268bn; non-oil to reach 15.7% of GDP.

The broadened VAT base, simplified structure, digital compliance, exemption cut, e-commerce taxation, and improved IGF mobilisation will create a stronger base for revenue mobilisation.

However, this will rely on aggressive execution and a high level of compliance improvements, which is typically not Ghana’s strong suit historically.

This poses a risk to the key surplus and deficit targets.

 

In a nutshell, the 2026 Budget fulfils nearly all the measures Ghana requires: discipline, cheaper financing, smarter taxes, and credible steps to manage debt.

But, as history has taught us, it is execution that will be the real test.

If the government continues to hold itself accountable for spending and implements the revenue reforms, 2026 really could be the year Ghana resets and drives accelerated growth.

Businesses should expect benefits from declining rates, a more stable forex environment, and capital-market options, making it an opportune time to reassess your credit structures and position yourself for growth.

Individuals will also not be left out; improved financial conditions, affordable borrowing, access to Jobs, and broader investment opportunities will make Ghana a true destination that supports real improvements in wellbeing and financial security. However, if discipline fades, the gains observed could drive us back to gasping for air.

 

-By Julien Ayippey (Head of Strategy and Research at First National Bank