Sunday, 10 December

NPP 2024: Alan and Bawumia, who has superior connection advantage (Part 2)

Feature Article
Alan and Bawumia

We are continuing with our connection factors to try to ascertain which of the two would be a good candidate to connect easily with the electorates in the 2024 election. This time, we are looking at the religious factor connection purely from strategic perspective. We know we are in a competitive game of numbers and, therefore, we must consciously connect well to have the numbers to win. There is no way we should allow our opponent to have any form of advantage over us if we really want to win election 2024. Never!


Currently in Ghana, 71.2% of the population belong to one particular faith – the Christian faith. This makes the Christian community in Ghana the most important political community, since politics is a game of numbers. Thus, every serious political party that wants to win power in this country must necessarily find a strategy to connect well with them. The consequences of failing to connect appropriately could be politically dire.

Since 1992, Ghana has been a two-party state, with the NPP and NDC dominating the political landscape. Each of the two parties has won four elections, and that clearly shows how competitive the Fourth Republic elections have been, and what makes it even more concerning is how the numbers in parliament are sharply divided.

Besides, if one analyses the data on the 2016 and 2020 elections results objectively, against the 8 years cycle thing we have had since 1992, the only conclusion the person can draw is that the 2024 election is going to be extremely competitive. It would not be the kind of election you step into with a weak foot. No!

Contrary to what those who see the religious factor as something inimical to the fortunes of their campaign are saying, data and examples available clearly show that religious factor is one of the most significant factors that influence election outcomes the world over. I need not belabour this fact because evidences of it abound. Exceptions to this fact are relatively infinitesimal, and those exceptions were occasioned by special circumstances.

Naturally, when a group of people find themselves in majority within a community, their proclivity to have one of them becoming a leader of the community is always high. Therefore, a serious political party that really wants to have the numbers to win, must have a strategy to take advantage of such situations.

As I have always cited in my recent writings, the APC of Nigeria’s critical decision to make their ticket a Muslim-Muslim ticket was nothing but a gasping strategy to take advantage of the Muslim votes in the country. Well, the election results show it was a great connection strategy.

They knew how unpopular their government had become prior to the election, due to the failing economy. So, they smartly thought of a strategy that would give them the numbers, regardless of the economic hardships. Albeit it was a costly strategy, it was worth it.

They collectively sacrificed the number two position occupied by the Christians, on the altar of power, to connect very well with those who have the numbers to determine the direction of election outcome – the Muslim community. That is why you didn’t hear the Christians in APC complain. They won with the principle of common understanding. That is called political smartness.

You see, when the Majority Chief Whip, Annor-Dompreh posited that, Dr. Bawumia is the right arrowhead to be used by the NPP to penetrate the Zongo communities to help the NPP to win the Muslim votes against John Mahama, he deficiently failed to think that, by the same logic, John Mahama too would be NDC’s arrowhead to help them to win more votes in the Christian community, in which case, the advantage would obviously fall on the lap of the NDC.

Hon. Annor-Dompreh, don’t you think 71.2% as against 17.6% is such a staggering difference to toy with in this game of numbers, where your opponent is the NDC, the propaganda masters? Needless to say, one doesn’t have to be a prophet to know that the Christians in this country would certainly have interest in who becomes the next president of the country. Don’t be deceived by outward appearance.

That is something that is already cast in stone. You downplay it at your own peril. You ignore it to your own defeat. You accept the reality for your own good. Sorry, it is in my political DNA to say the hard truth no matter how bitter it may sound. My late mum used to tell me bitter truth tastes sweet in the end. We can elect whoever as our national chairman, but we can’t elect whoever as our presidential candidate without recourse to a sound strategy relative the political market. My special greetings to the Sisala East MP.

QUESTION: Putting emotions aside, as a matter of strategy, which of the two gentlemen do you think can easily connect well with the Christian community for the party to have the needed numbers from that community to win the 2024 election against John Mahama?

Watch out for Part 3

Shalom shalom!

Source: E. G. BUCKMAN