Former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has emerged as the leading contender in the final opinion polls ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primary, according to a nationwide survey conducted by Africa Policy Lens (APL).

The poll, carried out between December 8, 2025, and January 23, 2026, sampled 9,122 respondents across all 276 constituencies through telephone interviews.

With a margin of error of ±2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, the findings are considered statistically robust.

The methodology revealed that nearly 99 percent of respondents were polling station executives, reflecting strong grassroots representation within the survey.

In addition, 91.9 percent of those interviewed indicated they had personally witnessed visits by presidential aspirants in their constituencies, pointing to an intense and highly engaged campaign period ahead of the primary.

On campaign messaging, Dr. Bawumia recorded a commanding lead, with 69.7 percent of respondents identifying his message as the clearest and most convincing among all aspirants.

Respondents cited themes of party unity, reconciliation and consistent engagement with grassroots delegates as key factors driving his appeal.

The poll also showed that Dr. Bawumia’s support increased significantly following his constituency visits.

His approval rating reportedly rose from 54.09 percent before the visits to 61 percent afterward, suggesting that his direct engagement with party delegates positively influenced voter sentiment.

Other aspirants, by contrast, recorded marginal gains or saw little change in their support levels.

Political analysts say the APL findings suggest growing consolidation within the NPP around Dr. Bawumia as the party moves closer to a pivotal decision ahead of the 2028 general elections.

His strong grassroots presence, effective messaging and rising post-engagement support position him as the frontrunner in the race.

The survey was overseen by Dr. Hayford Mensah Ayerakwa, Director of Research, Administration and Partnerships at Africa Policy Lens, under the overall supervision of the organisation’s President, Dr. George Domfe.