The World Bank has forecast Ghana’s GDP growth at 4.8 percent in 2026, down from an estimated 6.0 percent in 2025, pointing to a moderation after a strong post-pandemic recovery.

In its latest Africa Economic Update, the Bank attributed the slowdown to tightening domestic conditions and external pressures, despite ongoing improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals.

Inflation to ease

The report projects Ghana’s end-of-year inflation rate at around 9 percent in 2026, keeping it within single-digit levels. This is expected to be supported by improved currency stability, tight monetary policy, and easing external pressures.

Mixed outlook for businesses

The outlook for businesses remains mixed. Weaker domestic demand, cautious investment sentiment, and global uncertainty are expected to weigh on expansion, while lower inflation could improve consumer purchasing power and reduce operating costs.

The World Bank cautioned that Ghana remains vulnerable to global shocks, including commodity price volatility, uncertain financial conditions, and geopolitical risks affecting trade and energy markets.

Regional outlook

Across Sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected at 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025. However, the Bank noted rising downside risks, with the region’s recovery losing momentum and growth forecasts revised downward by 0.3 percentage points from the October 2025 outlook.

Factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high debt-service burdens, and structural constraints are expected to continue affecting growth and job creation. Disruptions to energy supplies and global shipping routes were also highlighted as additional risks.

Medium-term outlook

Despite the projected slowdown, Ghana’s medium-term growth is expected to stabilise at around 5 percent in the coming years, indicating a gradual recovery phase focused on stability rather than rapid expansion.